Charting Vancouver’s Real Estate Comeback

This article is based on Matthew McClenaghan’s appearance on the Vancouver Real Estate Podcast with hosts Adam and Matt Scalena. Listen to the full episode here.

Vancouver’s housing market has spent the better part of the past two years in a difficult place. Project cancellations, financing uncertainty, and a buyer pool sitting on the sidelines have defined a downturn that many in the industry compare to some of the most challenging periods in recent memory. But for Matthew McClenaghan, President of EDGAR Development, the picture is starting to shift — and the signals, while subtle, are meaningful.

“After months of project cancellations and market uncertainty, we’re finally starting to see a path through,” says McClenaghan. “The question isn’t whether Vancouver real estate comes back. It’s how, and who’s positioned to lead when it does.”

Why This Downturn Has Been Different

McClenaghan brings three decades of experience across sales, construction, and development to his reading of the current market. His view is that the recent downturn has been qualitatively different from previous cycles, not just a correction driven by interest rates but a structural problem created by the compounding of policy costs, approval delays, and a financing environment that has made new development genuinely unviable in many cases.

More than 30 percent of the cost of a new home in Metro Vancouver is now tied directly to government fees and taxes. That number has climbed steadily over years of incremental policy decisions, each adding $20 to $30 per square foot at a time. The cumulative effect has been a development industry where the math on new projects frequently doesn’t work, particularly for the mid-market and family-sized units the region needs most.

“The challenge isn’t that developers don’t want to build,” McClenaghan explains. “It’s that the cost structure has made it genuinely unprofitable to do so in many cases. And housing only gets built when it’s financially viable to build it.”

The Shift Toward End-User Buyers

One of the most significant structural changes McClenaghan identifies is the shift in who is buying new homes in Vancouver. The investor-driven presale model that dominated the market for years, where speculators absorbed a large share of units, providing the presale revenue developers needed to secure construction financing, has fundamentally weakened.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing for the long-term health of the market. End-user buyers, people purchasing homes to live in, represent a more stable and sustainable demand base. But the transition has required developers to rethink how they design, price, and market projects.

At EDGAR Development, that has meant a deliberate pivot toward housing that serves real families and real community needs with larger units of two or more bedrooms, mixed-tenure communities that combine market ownership, market rental, and below-market rental, and master-planned neighbourhoodsdesigned around amenities, green space, and transit access.

EDGAR’s Portwood development in Port Moody, a 23-acre, 2,200-home master-planned community and the first of its kind approved in Port Moody in nearly two decades, is the clearest expression of this philosophy. Portwood integrates strata condos, market-rate rentals, and 328 below-market rental homes developed in partnership with BC Housing, alongside a childcare facility, retail space, parks, and over a kilometre of multi-use trail. Approximately 70 percent of the site is dedicated to open space.

“We’re not building units,” says McClenaghan. “We’re building a neighbourhood. Those are fundamentally different things, and the market is starting to recognize the difference.”

McClenaghan also believes in diversifying the types of housing being built and the financing structures that support it. EDGAR has responded to the current environment by launching a fee-for-service development management division, which allows the company to act as a development manager or consultant for non-profits, institutional partners, and construction firms. This model reduces exposure to market risk while continuing to deliver housing, including the below-market and social housing the region critically needs.

It’s an approach that requires a longer view and deeper institutional relationships than the traditional speculative development model. But McClenaghan sees it as the direction the industry needs to move.

“The developers who will be best positioned coming out of this are the ones who diversified, who didn’t put everything on one model and one type of buyer,” he says. “Adaptability is the most important skill in this market right now.”

Why Recovery May Come Sooner Than Expected

Despite the challenges, McClenaghan sees genuine reasons for optimism, and he believes the recovery may arrive faster than the prevailing pessimism suggests.

Vancouver’s underlying fundamentals remain as strong as any major city in North America. Constrained land supply, proximity to transit and quality of life continue to underpin long-term demand. 

More immediately, the alignment of federal policy attention on housing supply and the depletion of presale inventory point toward a market that is closer to a turning point than it may appear.

“I think the turnaround may come quicker than many think,” McClenaghan says. “The fundamentals haven’t changed. What’s changed is the sentiment, and sentiment can shift faster than the underlying economics.”

What This Means for Buyers and Investors

For buyers, particularly those focused on longer-term ownership rather than speculation, the current market presents real opportunity. A period of lower competition, motivated sellers, and a development pipeline that has contracted sharply means that supply constraints will reassert themselves as demand recovers, likely driving prices upwards again. 

About Matthew McClenaghan

Matthew McClenaghan is President of EDGAR Development, a Vancouver-based real estate developer specializing in master-planned communities, purpose-built rental housing, and transit-oriented development across Metro Vancouver and Edmonton. He has 30 years of experience in the BC real estate industry spanning sales, construction, and development. EDGAR’s current portfolio includes more than 5,000 homes in development, including the Portwood community in Port Moody and the Columbia Square redevelopment in New Westminster.

About EDGAR Development

EDGAR Development is a Vancouver-based real estate developer founded in 2009 by CEO Peter Edgar. The company specializes in master-planned, transit-oriented communities that integrate market ownership, market rental, and below-market housing. EDGAR’s projects include The Duke, a LEED Gold purpose-built rental building in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant neighbourhood; Portwood, a 23-acre master-planned community in Port Moody; and Columbia Square, a proposed 3,800-home redevelopment in New Westminster. Peter Edgar was named to Vancouver Magazine’s Power 50 list in 2025.

To learn more about EDGAR Development and its projects, visit edgardevelopment.com.